Ruto-Raila Handshake Wins Big Among Kenyans - Report​​

Support for Kenya’s broad-based government has doubled within six months, according to a new opinion survey, even as most citizens remain pessimistic about the country’s overall direction.

A survey conducted by research firm TIFA between November 10 and 17 shows that support for the broad-based government has risen to 44 per cent, up from 22 per cent recorded in May. 

Despite the increase, opposition remains high, with 48 per cent of respondents saying they do not support the coalition.

The findings highlight a deeply divided public, with growing acceptance of the political arrangement but continued frustration over economic conditions and governance.

The broad-based government emerged following a power-sharing deal between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. 

The partnership marked a major shift in Kenya’s political landscape, effectively weakening the traditional role of the parliamentary opposition.

According to TIFA, the rise in support appears to be driven by several factors, including political realignments, recent national developments, and public reactions following Raila Odinga’s death in October. 

The survey suggests that sympathy and uncertainty after his passing may have influenced public opinion.

The alliance between President Ruto and Raila gained momentum last year when the Head of State openly backed Raila’s bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship. 

Although Raila lost the contest in February, the cooperation between the two leaders continued.

Soon after, President Ruto appointed several senior ODM leaders into Cabinet, cementing the broad-based government and further blurring the line between government and opposition.

However, the survey was carried out at a time of political transition, particularly within ODM, which has been grappling with leadership questions, succession debates, and preparations for the 2027 General Election.

While attitudes toward the coalition appear to be softening, the survey shows that Kenyans remain largely unhappy with how the country is performing.

TIFA found that 68 per cent of respondents believe Kenya is heading in the wrong direction. The negative perception cuts across regions and political affiliations but is more pronounced among those who oppose the broad-based government.

Among supporters of the coalition, 51 per cent still feel the country is on the wrong path. This figure rises sharply to 84 per cent among those who oppose the arrangement, underlining how political alignment strongly influences public outlook.

Even among respondents who expressed no clear opinion on the broad-based government, pessimism dominates. 

Sixty per cent of this group believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, compared to just 11 per cent who think it is on the right track.

The survey also reveals growing dissatisfaction in the Mt Kenya region, traditionally a key political stronghold. 

TIFA notes that frustration in the region may signal emerging cracks within an influential voting bloc ahead of the next election cycle.

Economic hardship remains the strongest driver of public sentiment. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said their household economic situation has worsened since the 2022 General Election. Only a small fraction reported any improvement in their financial wellbeing.

TIFA found a clear link between personal economic experience and views on the broad-based government. 

Respondents who said their financial situation has improved were more likely to support the coalition, while those who feel worse off overwhelmingly opposed it.

This suggests that public support for the power-sharing arrangement is shaped not only by politics but also by whether citizens feel tangible economic benefits in their daily lives.

The survey further shows that unemployment, high cost of living, and inflation remain the most pressing concerns for Kenyans.