Speaking on Friday during the 46th Muloogoli Cultural Festival held in Mbale, Vihiga County, Mudavadi said the legal framework governing elections is currently misaligned with constitutional timelines, creating a looming crisis that could derail the next polls.
According to the Prime CS, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) cannot lawfully conduct a general election without up-to-date population census data and a completed boundaries review, both of which are required under the 2010 Constitution.
“No valid population census data, no valid boundaries review, and therefore no general election,” Mudavadi said.
“That is not my opinion; it is the law. We must be honest with ourselves and confront this reality.”
Mudavadi expressed concern that with less than two years remaining before the 2027 polls, critical constitutional requirements remain unmet.
He noted that the country is already operating outside constitutional timelines, a situation he described as dangerous for Kenya’s democracy.
“Only about 20 months remain before the next general election,” he said.
“The truth is that 2027 is fast becoming a referendum moment. We are staring at a constitutional storm, and leaders must speak honestly about it.”
He explained that the Constitution requires a review of electoral boundaries every eight to twelve years.
However, the timeline for the most recent review expired in March 2024 without the exercise being conducted.
“We are now in a period of constitutional non-compliance,” Mudavadi warned. “That is the trap we are in as a country.”
The Prime CS further pointed to legal complications arising from the nullification of census results in three northern counties—Wajir, Mandera, and Garissa—by the courts. The ruling ordered a mini-census to be conducted in those counties in January 2026.
Mudavadi said this creates a serious legal dilemma, as it would be unconstitutional to combine data from the 2019 national census with fresh figures collected in 2026.
“You cannot mix census data from two different periods,” he said. “That would be legally untenable. Without a valid national census, there can be no boundaries review, and without boundaries review, there can be no general election.”
Mudavadi also highlighted constitutional limitations affecting electoral units. He noted that Article 89 of the Constitution restricts the creation of new constituencies beyond the current 290, despite significant population growth in many areas.
He warned that some constituencies currently protected under the law could even face extinction once a boundaries review is eventually conducted.
At the county level, Mudavadi said there is an additional conflict between the Constitution and the County Government Act, which caps the number of wards at 1,450.
“The Constitution allows IEBC to increase, reduce, or rename wards,” he said. “But statutory limitations make that difficult, creating another layer of legal conflict.”
He said such a process would not only align electoral laws with demographic realities but also allow for the implementation of key governance reforms.
He added that a referendum would help operationalise proposals contained in the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, which was jointly signed by President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga.
“These reforms are not about politics,” Mudavadi said.
He added that a referendum would help operationalise proposals contained in the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, which was jointly signed by President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga.
“These reforms are not about politics,” Mudavadi said.
“They are about safeguarding our democracy, ensuring fair representation, and preventing a constitutional crisis.”
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