The statement, made during a meeting with ODM lawmakers in Machakos on Monday, reverberated through the political landscape unsettling not just the Kenya Kwanza coalition, which has been counting on Raila’s support in the next general election, but also his own allies in government under the ODM–UDA cooperation agreement.
“Who told you that ODM will not have a presidential candidate in 2027? First, think as ODM. We have a clear plan that we have discussed and agreed upon. Other decisions will be considered at the right time,” Raila said during Monday’s meeting.
His statement came just a few weeks after he assured mourners at the funeral of former Karachuonyo MP Phoebe Asiyo that the Inclusive Government arrangement between him and President Ruto would last until 2027.
However, following his new statement, some of his allies in government are reportedly anxious about whether the ODM leader is ready to jeopardize their cooperation with President Ruto.
In recent months, President Ruto has intensified efforts to win over Raila’s close allies into his administration.
From Cabinet positions such as Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), John Mbadi (Finance), Hassan Joho (Mining), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), and Beatrice Askul (EAC), to the appointment of Raila’s friends into parastatal boards, the list of ODM members in government continues to grow.
Political analysts say these moves are part of President Ruto’s strategy to ensure Raila either supports him or at least does not strongly oppose him in 2027.
But Raila’s new remarks have left even his closest allies guessing about his next move.
“Sometimes serving the nation is more important than party politics,” said one of Raila’s appointees, hinting that he might defy the ODM leader if he chooses to pull out of the political cooperation.
Another said: “I have been loyal to Raila, but times change. We cannot keep living in perpetual political uncertainty. We do not have to follow him into another contest.
“Some of us have secured positions in government and want to serve. I cannot resign because of political shifts. My loyalty is to the country.”
His allies in government are now at a crossroads: should they remain loyal to him or focus on their jobs under President Ruto?
Analysts suggest Raila’s statement could either be a negotiating tactic to extract more concessions from Ruto or an early signal of a looming split.
“The situation is difficult. Baba has put us in a tight spot. We are in government, but we are unsure whether he still wants us after 2027,” said an MP allied to the inclusive government camp.
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