Why UDA’s By-Election Sweep May Not Mean What You Think – Analyst Weighs In

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) recently registered a clean sweep in by-elections across Kenya, reinforcing its presence in the country’s political landscape.

These wins followed a major victory in November 2025, when UDA secured the Mbeere North and Malava seats.

Political analyst Masibo Lumala, however, warns that these results may not fully reflect UDA’s long-term popularity.

He explains that by-elections, especially those close to general elections, often serve as a measure of a party’s immediate mobilization capacity rather than sustained public support.

In Mbeere North, UDA candidate Leonard Mutende narrowly defeated Newton Kariuki of the Democratic Party, who was backed by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP).

While this win gave Deputy President Kithure Kindiki bragging rights, the slim margin highlights a competitive environment in the vote-rich region.

UDA also secured two MCA seats in Mbeere North, the Isiolo parliamentary seat, and a Kakamega county MCA seat in West Kabras. Party officials hailed these victories as proof of the public’s endorsement of President William Ruto’s agenda and manifesto, The Plan.

UDA Secretary-General Hassan Omar said the results reflect growing faith in the government’s development initiatives. President Ruto shared similar views, emphasizing that Kenyans favor development over opposition rhetoric.

Lumala, however, cautions against overconfidence. He notes that narrow margins suggest the party’s strong campaign machinery, rather than broad public support, played a decisive role.

He predicts that once the 2027 campaign season begins, dynamics may shift significantly. Regions like Mount Kenya, Kisii, Ukambani, and Western Kenya could lean toward the opposition, especially if UDA partners with ODM.

On the other hand, Soy MP David Kiplagat maintains optimism, citing UDA’s expanding reach beyond traditional strongholds. He believes the party could win seats even in areas traditionally outside its influence, including the Coast and North Eastern regions.

Political experts also note that a united opposition, led by figures such as former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka or former CS Fred Matiang’i, could pose a serious challenge in 2027.

Ultimately, while by-elections offer insight into current support, the real test for UDA will come as the nation heads to the polls in August 2027.