Nyakera, writing on his X page on Sunday, November 30, said recent political shifts have changed the landscape so significantly that Ruto no longer enjoys the support base that propelled him into office three years ago.
According to the former Principal Secretary, Ruto narrowly edged Raila Odinga in 2022 only because he performed strongly in his two biggest vote baskets—the Mt Kenya region and the Rift Valley.
He also won pockets of support in Bungoma and Marsabit, which boosted his numbers enough to cross the line.
Nyakera now argues that these regions have slipped away from Ruto as a result of shifting alliances and frustrations within the mountain.
In his statement, Nyakera said that counties that once leaned towards the opposition—Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Nyamira, and Kisii—have gradually returned to ODM’s side, making them almost unreachable for the president.
He further claimed that Mt Kenya, the region that gave Ruto his biggest political lift in 2022, has shown clear signs of disillusionment with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
According to him, the president is now left with a shrinking support base that can no longer offer a decisive win.
Nyakera concluded that Ruto is now heavily reliant on the Rift Valley and “a few scattered counties” that cannot, on their own, guarantee a national victory.
Nyakera’s comments come just a day after former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi made similar remarks while speaking in Embu.
Linturi insisted that despite Kenya Kwanza’s recent wins in several by-elections, the victories do not reflect the true political mood on the ground.
“Come 2027, what we saw before will not be repeated. Nobody will have that machinery, that power, or that money again. I tell you, Ruto will be a one-term president,” Linturi declared.
The former CS added that the coalition’s candidate in the recent Mbeere by-election lost not because of weak support but because of betrayal within the team.
Linturi, however, declined to mention who the “traitors” were, but he maintained that the opposition performed strongly despite the defeat.
Linturi told the United Opposition team that they should not feel discouraged by the Mbeere loss, saying the coalition had demonstrated strong unity and resilience.
He urged his colleagues to stay focused, arguing that the country’s political climate is changing rapidly and not in favour of Kenya Kwanza.
Political analysts say the remarks by both Nyakera and Linturi signal a growing belief within sections of the opposition and even some government insiders that Ruto’s re-election bid may face serious obstacles.
Rising public dissatisfaction, shifting alliances, and increasing criticism from Mt Kenya leaders are among the factors believed to be shaping the narrative ahead of 2027.
Nyakera’s strongest point is the claim that the Mt Kenya region no longer feels politically aligned with the president.
He argued that the unity that existed during the 2022 campaigns has faded, with leaders in the region now openly questioning the administration’s promises and priorities.
According to him, once Mt Kenya’s enthusiasm drops, Ruto cannot replace those numbers easily.
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