Nyanza Senator Who Might Defect From ODM Before The Next 2027 Election - OPINION

Since its formation in 2005, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has remained one of Kenya’s most stable and successful political parties.

With strongholds in Nyanza, Western, Nairobi, and the Coast, ODM has consistently sponsored numerous candidates into elective positions.

The party also made significant inroads in Rift Valley during the 2007 general election and performed fairly well in North Eastern and parts of Rift Valley like Narok and Kajiado in 2022.

Despite its enduring influence, ODM now faces internal tensions following party leader Raila Odinga’s decision to align with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government.

This move has sparked dissatisfaction among some elected members who feel sidelined or ideologically opposed to the coalition.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka is among those expressing discontent. In January 2025, Onyonka publicly declared his support for former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i’s presidential bid in 2027.

He revealed ongoing meetings with Matiang’i and pledged to back his campaign. Raila Odinga later dismissed the viability of a Kisii-only presidential bid, stating that regional votes alone could not secure the presidency.

Onyonka’s stance highlights a growing rift within ODM. Unlike many of his colleagues who have embraced the broad-based government, Onyonka remains skeptical.

In February, prior to Raila’s unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, Onyonka criticized Ruto’s decision to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

He warned that Raila’s loss could politically weaken the president—a prediction that did not deter Raila from continuing to work with Ruto post-election.

These developments suggest that ODM’s internal cohesion may be tested in the lead-up to the 2027 general election.

While Raila’s strategic alliance with Ruto could offer broader national influence, it risks alienating members who feel the party is drifting from its core principles.

As political realignments unfold, ODM must navigate the delicate balance between expanding its reach and maintaining loyalty among its elected representatives. The party’s future may depend on how it manages dissent and adapts to Kenya’s shifting political terrain.