Political analysts say the emerging rift between leaders from Central and South Nyanza proves that ODM is no longer secure even in its own backyard.
Counties such as Migori and Homa Bay, which still appear loyal to Raila, are now surprisingly supportive of ODM’s partnership with UDA. But not all supporters are celebrating this new direction.
Some see this alliance as a betrayal of the party’s reformist roots, democracy, and genuine opposition. This sentiment is most visible in Central Nyanza, where leaders like Professor Tom Ojienda and Dr. Oburu Oginga have been aggressively campaigning to legitimize the ODM–UDA agreement.
Inside the party, dissenting voices are being silenced. Edwin Sifuna, ODM’s Secretary-General, once known for his strong ideological stance, now appears weighed down by internal party pressures.
Former reformists such as James Orengo and Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o seem lost, issuing contradictory statements about ODM’s future direction.
“It seems they only want to protect their jobs, but deep down they are pained by watching the party abandon its founding principles,” says Dr. Gichuki.
In this situation, ODM is losing not only its policy direction but also its grassroots trust. Supporters who once eagerly volunteered, protested, or voted passionately are now becoming skeptical.
The unity of its leadership is at risk, and what was once a grassroots-driven party is now threatened with becoming a vehicle for elite political deals without grassroots consent.
“Partnering with a leader whose popularity is falling is political suicide. Instead of benefiting from the alliance, ODM appears to be digging its own grave,” says political analyst Dr. Isaac Gichuki.
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