Kagwe Issues Alert Over Looming Food Shortage and Price Increase

Kenya is staring at a potential food crisis as prolonged drought conditions continue to disrupt agricultural production, with rice shortages widening and food prices beginning to climb, Agriculture and Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has warned.

Speaking on Tuesday, Kagwe said the country has reached a critical point where domestic food production is increasingly unable to meet rising demand, placing millions of households at risk of food insecurity if urgent measures are not taken.

Rice, a key staple for both urban consumers and households in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), has been among the hardest hit commodities.

Erratic rainfall patterns have significantly reduced output, putting pressure on supply chains and triggering price volatility in major markets.

According to Kagwe, the rice deficit threatens to spill over into other staples such as maize, potentially worsening inflation and stretching already strained household food budgets.

“Kenya produces less than 20 per cent of the rice it consumes, and the shortfall is projected to exceed 380,000 metric tonnes by early 2026,” Kagwe said.

“If we do not act swiftly, more families will face food insecurity.”

Government data shows that between January and June 2026 alone, national rice demand is expected to reach approximately 750,000 metric tonnes—far beyond what local production and existing stocks can supply.

Analysts caution that without immediate intervention, the deficit could lead to further price hikes, reduced access to food, and increased vulnerability among low-income households.

The situation is particularly dire in ASAL counties, where food insecurity levels are already high. 

Projections indicate that the number of people facing acute hunger in these regions could rise sharply from 1.8 million to 3.5 million if relief programmes and support measures are delayed or scaled down.

Kagwe warned that climate-induced shocks, if left unaddressed, could quickly escalate into a nationwide hunger emergency.

“Delay risks turning climate stress into a full-blown hunger crisis. We must act now to safeguard the right to food and ensure that no Kenyan goes hungry this year,” he said, calling for coordinated action involving government agencies, development partners, and county administrations.

As part of its response, the government has moved to allow time-bound, duty-free rice imports in an effort to stabilise supply and cushion consumers from rising prices. 

However, the policy has sparked legal challenges from some local stakeholders who argue that it could disadvantage domestic farmers.

The High Court is currently considering a constitutional petition challenging the import programme. 

The case, which is expected to be determined on January 29, 2026, could have far-reaching implications for food availability, market prices, and agricultural policy.

In a related ruling delivered in Kerugoya, the court allowed Kirinyaga Senator Kamau Murango and Baragwi Ward Representative David Mathenge to take over the petition after the Farmers Party, which initially filed the case, sought to withdraw.

The court emphasised that constitutional matters touching on public welfare and economic policy cannot be abandoned at will, noting that the issues raised affect farmers, consumers, and the broader national interest.

The case now proceeds as Kenya balances the urgent need to secure affordable food supplies against the long-term goal of strengthening domestic agricultural production.