Survey places Babu Owino on top of influential Nyanza politicians as the preferred successor of Raila Odinga as the Luo kingpin

A recent survey by Infotrak shows Embakasi East MP Babu Owino leading the race to succeed the late Raila Odinga as the political leader of the Luo community in Nyanza, with 33% of respondents expressing support.

The survey also found Siaya senator Oburu Oginga trailing at 10%, Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga at 7%, and Siaya governor James Orengo at 4%. 

Other leaders such as Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi and Treasury official John Mbadi received 2% and 1% support, respectively.

Who Could Lead Luo Nyanza After Raila?

The death of Raila Odinga on October 15 marked the end of decades of political leadership, leaving a leadership vacuum in Nyanza and raising questions about who will take up the mantle. 

Raila had followed in the footsteps of his father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, to lead the Luo community.

Babu Owino, a Kisumu County native, enjoys significant support among Luo voters, according to the survey conducted between December 19 and 20. 

The poll used quantitative interviews conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) with a sample of 1,000 respondents across all 47 counties, providing a margin of error of ±3.10% at 95% confidence.

The findings emerge amid speculation about internal tensions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with some loyalists favoring Oburu Oginga over Babu Owino. 

The perceived sidelining of Babu in Nairobi’s upcoming gubernatorial contest prompted discussions about whether he might run as an independent.

Oburu Oginga later met with Babu Owino, reassuring him that ODM would support him for the Nairobi gubernatorial seat in 2027 if he won the party’s nomination. 

Oburu emphasized the importance of nurturing visionary and dynamic leaders, noting that Babu fit this profile.

The Infotrak survey also highlighted the popularity of national leaders ahead of the 2027 general elections. President William Ruto’s approval rating has risen from 21% in August to 28% in December, making him the frontrunner for re-election. 

He is followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi at 13%, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 12%, and Babu Owino at 7%.

In terms of party support, the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) leads with 23% of respondents expressing preference, followed by ODM at 19%, DCP at 6%, Jubilee at 5%, and Wiper at 4%.

The survey results indicate a shift in the Luo political landscape, with Babu Owino emerging as a popular choice among voters who previously looked to Raila Odinga for leadership. 


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