The Mbeere North by-election on November 27, 2025, turned out to be a high-stakes political battle in Mt Kenya.
At the center of the contest were President William Ruto, who is seeking re-election in 2027, and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, leader of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP).
Many political analysts now say that Gachagua may have fallen into a trap carefully set by President Ruto. Instead of campaigning directly, Ruto sent a strong team, including his Deputy Prof Kithure Kindiki, UDA chair Cecily Mbarire, and Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku, to lead the campaign on his behalf.
On the other hand, Gachagua had former Attorney-General Justin Muturi and ex-Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti supporting him.
The results were very close. Ruto’s candidate, Leonard Muthende, won by 494 votes, receiving 15,802 votes compared to Gachagua’s candidate Newton Kariuki, who got 15,308 votes.
Political pundits had expected that voters might show anger against Ruto, but his team’s efforts ensured victory.
Analyst Samuel Wang’ombe explained that Gachagua was “played into a trap.”
According to Wang’ombe, Ruto cleverly encouraged Gachagua to drop his strong DCP candidate, Duncan Mbui, in favor of Kariuki, not knowing that the government would quietly support Mbui through another party, Chama Cha Kazi.
Mbui ended up receiving 2,480 votes, making the race even more challenging for Gachagua’s camp.
Another key reason for Ruto’s success, according to analysts, was focusing on real development rather than just promises.
Candidates backed by Ruto addressed urgent local problems like water, electricity, roads, education, and police issues.
For weeks, government departments actively engaged with residents to find solutions. As UDA chair Cecily Mbarire said, “We sold development while our competitors sold promises. We delivered what the voters listed.”
Despite the loss, Gachagua claims the elections were unfair, alleging the use of goons, handouts, and disguised police officers to influence results.
He warned that such tactics could cause tensions leading to the 2027 elections.
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