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“Raila Won’t Last in Ruto’s Government” — Analyst Predicts Imminent Collapse of Ruto-Raila Pact

Recently, former prime minister Raila Odinga declared that his ODM party has not abandoned its presidential ambitions ahead of the 2027 election, even as he cooperates with Ruto in a unity government.

The statement has reignited speculation over whether he intends to mount yet another bid for State House.

For nearly four decades, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga has mastered the art of unsettling presidents and their governments.

His political maneuvers have consistently disrupted administrations: from opposing President Daniel arap Moi’s “authoritarian” regime, forcing a coalition government with President Mwai Kibaki in 2007, striking a truce with President Uhuru Kenyatta, and now his handshake with President William Ruto.

Now, as President Ruto works hard to keep him on his side while watching his every move, the ODM leader continues to project an image of political unpredictability.

Professor Gitile Naituli of Multi Media University says Kenyan politics never runs short of surprises.

“But one thing is becoming clear: Raila Odinga will not remain in William Ruto’s government for long.

“In fact, by the middle of next year, this coalition of convenience that lured the Azimio leader into Kenya Kwanza may collapse." said the governance and leadership scholar.

He stresses that Mr. Odinga’s entire political life has been built on identifying with the interests of the ordinary citizen.

“Raila is experienced, he understands the direction of politics, and he cares deeply about his base to the extent that he cannot remain in a government that increasingly undermines the economic and democratic interests of citizens,” Prof. Naituli explained.

Prof. Naituli says the veteran has positioned himself as a defender of the common man against oppressive regimes.

“His brand as a reformist championing the rights of ordinary people is the foundation of his politics. That is what earns him support in Nairobi’s poor neighborhoods, Kisii, Nyamira, the Western region, and the Coast.

Disrupting this by aligning too closely with Ruto’s government would be political suicide,” he argued.


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