The political alliance between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga may not deliver the expected advantage at the ballot as Kenya inches closer to the 2027 general elections.
Despite their current cooperation, analysts believe shifting voter dynamics and emerging generational trends will render Raila’s endorsement less impactful than in past elections.
Traditionally, Raila has commanded loyal support from large regions including Nyanza, Western, Coast, and parts of Nairobi.
Traditionally, Raila has commanded loyal support from large regions including Nyanza, Western, Coast, and parts of Nairobi.
But his recent alignment with Ruto, seen through their collaborative stance on various government initiatives and regional matters, is raising questions about his political influence ahead of 2027.
Policy expert Kiragu Wachira says Kenyan voters are gradually moving away from tribal loyalties to issue-based politics.
Policy expert Kiragu Wachira says Kenyan voters are gradually moving away from tribal loyalties to issue-based politics.
“We are seeing a political transition where voters are no longer just following ethnic lines,” he noted.
“Communities are beginning to unite around shared interests rather than shared ethnicity.”
Wachira points to Western Kenya — a region once firmly under Raila’s wing — as a newly emerging swing zone. He believes that the political partnership with Ruto has weakened Raila’s grip on this crucial voting bloc.
Wachira points to Western Kenya — a region once firmly under Raila’s wing — as a newly emerging swing zone. He believes that the political partnership with Ruto has weakened Raila’s grip on this crucial voting bloc.
“The Western region has both a sizable local and diaspora population. Losing that vote could be costly for Ruto.”
Other regions such as Central Kenya and the Coast are also showing signs of political drift. Raila’s close ties with government may have alienated a section of his traditional supporters, particularly those drawn to his history of opposition politics and defiance.
But the biggest unknown in 2027 remains the Gen Z voter. Politically conscious and socially active, this generation of young Kenyans is largely disinterested in tribal affiliations and instead prioritizes issues such as unemployment, cost of living, and corruption.
“Gen Z is rejecting the usual political scripts,” Wachira adds. “They want leaders who reflect their struggles and their future, not recycled political alliances.”
Historian Prof. Macharia Munene adds that tribal voting is often exaggerated. “People vote for the candidate they believe is best for them. If tribalism were absolute, many past elections would have gone differently,” he explained, citing the 2002 and 2022 elections as examples of issue-based decisions.
On the other hand, political commentator Herman Manyora warns against underestimating the power of ethnic mobilization.
Other regions such as Central Kenya and the Coast are also showing signs of political drift. Raila’s close ties with government may have alienated a section of his traditional supporters, particularly those drawn to his history of opposition politics and defiance.
But the biggest unknown in 2027 remains the Gen Z voter. Politically conscious and socially active, this generation of young Kenyans is largely disinterested in tribal affiliations and instead prioritizes issues such as unemployment, cost of living, and corruption.
“Gen Z is rejecting the usual political scripts,” Wachira adds. “They want leaders who reflect their struggles and their future, not recycled political alliances.”
Historian Prof. Macharia Munene adds that tribal voting is often exaggerated. “People vote for the candidate they believe is best for them. If tribalism were absolute, many past elections would have gone differently,” he explained, citing the 2002 and 2022 elections as examples of issue-based decisions.
On the other hand, political commentator Herman Manyora warns against underestimating the power of ethnic mobilization.
“Yes, Gen Z is shaking things up. But ethnic voting still lingers beneath the surface,” he said.
“However, if politicians ignore Gen Z, they do so at their own peril.”
The Coast region, another long-standing Raila base, may also become unpredictable.
“Coastal voters respect defiance,” Manyora said.
“Raila was that figure for years. Now that he’s perceived as ‘inside’ the system, that image may no longer inspire the same loyalty.”
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