Mr Njega, who has been critical of President William Ruto's administration, said on Facebook that the two tribal groups might be commanded by Ruto and his newfound allies, and the other by Gachagua/Kalonzo.
"The key question is whether Raila will remain with Ruto in 2027. "The chances of this happening appear to be less than 50%," he stated.
Furthermore, Mr Njega, who has been critical of Ruto's economic model for the past two years, stated that Raila is in a very awkward cohabitation with Ruto, adding that the former prime minister wants one leg in government and the other in opposition, leaving his options open.
Mr. Ephraim Njega also contrasted the current political climate to that of 2002, implying that by 2027, Ruto could suffer unpopularity comparable to Moi in 2002. Njega predicted that Raila would swap alliances at the last minute to join the likely winning team or run solo.
He emphasised that Gachagua's alleged impeachment and harassment by Ruto might transform him into a hero, just as Ruto acquired popularity after being persecuted by Uhuru.
Furthermore, Njega warned that Ruto's goal of replacing the Mt. Kenya voting bloc with Nyanza and Western voters could backfire, perhaps generating a siege mentality in Mt. Kenya and resulting in high voter turnout owing to economic hardship.
Njega emphasised that in the 2027 election, a significant third political party could emerge, propelled by Gen Z anger and pitting the people against politicians.
The state of the economy will be crucial, as continued economic slowdown could lead to widespread dissatisfaction with the current regime, potentially resulting in a complete political overhaul." He added:
He also noted a Tanzanian observer's comment on the complexity of Kenyan politics, suggesting that the 2027 election could be highly charged.
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