For years, ODM has enjoyed overwhelming support across the two areas, largely thanks to its strong grassroots networks and the influence of party leader Raila Odinga.
However, with Raila’s passing and new political dynamics emerging, cracks are beginning to show.
In Kisii, leaders are increasingly charting their own political paths, with some leaning toward other formations.
Younger voters, who form a large portion of the electorate, are demanding a new kind of leadership one less tied to old political loyalties.
Additionally, rival parties and emerging coalitions are working hard to attract this demographic by promising development and economic empowerment.
In Western Kenya, similar trends are unfolding. Some influential figures from the region have started pushing for a stronger, more unified local political bloc.
This could weaken ODM’s grip, as voters may rally behind leaders promising a homegrown political strategy rather than national party loyalty.
ODM’s future in these regions will depend on how well it manages succession politics and reconnects with its base.
If the party can rebrand and elevate new credible leaders who understand local priorities, it may retain significant influence.
But if it fails to adapt, its traditional support may gradually erode.
The coming months will be crucial, especially with upcoming by-elections and national realignments.
Whether ODM can retain its stronghold in Kisii and Western Kenya or cede ground to new political forces remains one of the most watched questions in Kenya’s evolving political arena.
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